Vietnam’s pangasius firms could be hit worse than shrimp by US tariff, despite lower level

The main markets for Vietnamese pangasius are slow and stable, which is largely being seen as a good thing after a tough 2023; sources are calm on a possible shortage of raw material.

The Vietnamese seafood sector looks to be one of the worst-hit by the new US reciprocal trade tariffs that were announced on many of the most important suppliers on April 2.

Vietnam will be hit with a tariff of 46% — judged by the US to be half the rate it charges in turn — and for shrimp, that comes on top of a 25.76% anti-dumping rate and a 2.84% countervailing duty tariff, meaning a total tariff of 74.6%.

And yet, Jean-Charles Diener, director of OFCO Group — a French inspection and consulting firm based in Vietnam — told Undercurrent News he feared more for the pangasius sector.

“If these tariffs take effect on April 9 and include seafood, this will heavily impact the pangasius and shrimp industries,” he said. “It’s hard to believe the US would impose a46% tariff on seafood from Vietnam, but if it happens, the repercussions on the pangasius industry could be huge.”

Shrimp companies, too, would be significantly impacted, but it is a more resilient industry, he believes.

The US may be the second-largest market for pangasius exports, but it is crucial for stability, he stressed. “China is the biggest market, but it often brings more chaos than stability to the industry.”

“If pangasius really faces a 46% tariff, I believe prices will drop, and within a few weeks or months, the market will become more confused than ever. Farmers might significantly reduce farming, leading to a shortage of raw materials by the end of the year. This is not in anyone’s interest because while some importers might appreciate lower prices, this will create a lot of confusion in the market in the medium term.”

The chart below, from Undercurrent’s prices portal, shows Vietnamese customs data for all specifications of pangasius product shipped to the US, and the average export price across them.

Some of Vietnam’s biggest seafood firms rely on US

Vietnam’s largest exporter of pangasius, Vinh Hoan Corp., saw 54% of its total 2023overseas revenue of $307.8m come from sales to the US — that was a total that was down year-on-year, and a decrease to the US in particular. 

Vinh Hoan’s sales to the US were up 33% in 2024, reaching $153.5m, according to VASEP estimates issued ahead of the company’s annual report release. The year before, 54% of its exports had gone to the US.

The domestic Vietnamese market was the second-largest at VND 3.5 trillion ($136.1m)in 2024, up 25.6% y-o-y — a potential bright spot if the company needs to diversify further.

Sales to Europe reached an estimated $82.5m in 2024.